Abstract
California's Fifth Regional Housing Needs Allocation provides forecasts of new housing units needed across four household income levels in cities for the periods 2013-2015 to 2021-2023 to address the state's housing shortage, along with the permits issued for these units. Using regression analysis, we examine how local factors related to potential "Not in My Back Yard" (NIMBY) demographics and motivations, as well as housing allocation and approval processes, may influence a city's number of permitted housing units. Our analysis shows that many of these factors exert the expected correlation with the number of housing units permitted. Cities with a higher percentage of young adults and adults who voted in the 2016 presidential election and who voted Republican are more likely to permit additional housing units than needed. Fewer than needed permits are issued in cities with a greater proportion of long-term residents and a local comprehensive plan that does not adequately accommodate the housing needed in a city. These findings highlight two important policy considerations for regions experiencing a shortage of affordable housing: (1) local jurisdictions often resist measures to increase housing supply, and (2) effective institutional interventions from a higher level of government are required to improve housing affordability.