Abstract
Sarcoptic mange poses a serious conservation threat to endangered San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). After first appearing in Bakersfield, California in spring 2013, mange reduced the kit fox population approximately 50% until the epidemic ended with minimally detectable endemic cases after 2020. Mange is lethal and thus, with such a high force of infection and lack of immunity, it remains unclear why the epidemic did not burn itself out rapidly and how it persisted so long. Here we explored spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic, analyzed historical movement data, and created a compartment metapopulation model (named "metaseir") to evaluate whether movement of foxes among patches and spatial heterogeneity would reproduce the eight years epidemic with 50% population reduction observed in Bakersfield. Our main findings from metaseir were that: 1) a simple metapopulation model can capture the Bakersfield-like disease epidemic dynamics even when there is no environmental reservoir or external spillover host, 2) the most impactful parameter on persistence and magnitude of the epidemic is the projection, β/αβ (transmission over decay rate of transmission over space), 3) heterogeneity in patch carrying capacities changes the critical value of the projection needed to achieve an epidemic but makes little difference to epidemic persistence time, and 4) the epidemic is relatively insensitive to birth rates and density vs. frequency-dependent transmission. Our model can help guide management and assessment of metapopulation viability of this vulpid subspecies, while the exploratory data analysis and model will also be valuable to understand mange in other, particularly den-occupying, species.