Abstract
This note proposes a simple, expected utility-like model for decision making under uncertainty. The model uses the maximum probability for each possible outcome and the amount of information conveyed by this upper envelope. A graphical tool is introduced and used to study the model when two outcomes are possible. The model is extended to an abstract number of outcomes in which interpersonal comparisons of preferences are considered along with applications to medical decision making and financial asset demand.
•An Expected Utility-like model is proposed for choice under uncertainty.•The model weights utilities by the maximum probability and an information term.•Information depends on how much is known about probabilities.•A probability triangle-like figure is introduced and used to explore the model.•Applications to medical decision making and financial asset demand are explored.