Abstract
Technology innovation can lead to substantive digital transformation; however, new innovations often mature early and fail to live up to the forecasts of their evangelists. While many innovation theories focus on initial adoption, we propose the theory of Technology Maturity Magnitude to describe the extent to which a new innovation will displace existing technologies. We operationalize our theory and test our propositions using secondary data on technology adoption in Canada and demonstrate the potential of our theoretical model for predicting the magnitude of technology maturation within industries. By applying our theory, executives and managers may evaluate the financial benefits an innovation may provide against the difficulty of implementing the technology within an organization to predict the magnitude to which a digital transformation will occur within an industry.