Abstract
Introduction and BackgroundThe 47th U.S. presidential administration has both reflected and intensified political hostility toward transgender and nonbinary people through targeted policies and rhetoric. While previous research has documented the psychological harm caused by sociopolitical hostility, less is known about how transgender and nonbinary communities interpret, endure, and make meaning within the context of sustained systemic threat. This conceptual model integrates theory and lived experience to articulate patterns of emotional and behavioral response; this can inform advocacy, care practices, and policy interventions during periods of heightened vulnerability.Theoretical FramingThis conceptual model developed through situated theorizing based on the author's roles as clinician, community member, and researcher. Drawing from Minority Stress Theory, the Social Safety Model, and theories of trauma, grief, and critical frameworks, the model describes how transgender and nonbinary people navigated the first 100 days of the administration.Model OverviewThe model consists of three recursive phases: Rupture, Mobilization and Inactivation, and Containing Harm, Creating Safety. These phases reflect layered patterns of meaning-making, including initial collapse, cycles of action and inaction, and strategies of emotional containment and refusal.Discussion, Conclusions, and ImplicationsThis model offers a process-based framework for understanding psychological and relational responses to systemic threat. It supports trauma-informed, grief-responsive, and justice-oriented approaches in clinical, research, and policy settings. Finally, it highlights how harm can be mitigated and care sustained when safety cannot be externally guaranteed.