Abstract
•A socio-hydrological investigation is implemented involving farmers of two irrigated communities within the Upper Blue Nile region.•A calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model is used to evaluate social perceptions on water management.•The physics-based hydrological model captured key societal phenomena on irrigation fairness.
Water management in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) region of Ethiopia often entails fragmented efforts to supplement rainfed agriculture with surface water and reservoir-based irrigation schemes. On top of the broader climate change, drought and water food insecurity issues, the irrigation managers inability to accommodate farmer perceptions into sophisticated designs for resource utilization creates a fragile system from the root level. Driven by this, the objective of this research is to carry out a socio-hydrological investigation to highlight how hydrological models can be used to map farmers’ perception on irrigation water adequacy and water management fairness. The study uses predictions from a calibrated MODFLOW-NWT groundwater (GW) model in two irrigated communities of Ethiopia, namely, the Koga Reservoir (‘closed’ community) and the Quashni River (‘open’ community) irrigation project areas. Farmer perceptions were studied through detailed household surveys (n = 172 households), which were then statistically analyzed through logistic regression models under different sociological conjectures. The socio-hydrological investigation revealed that the local GW models were in good agreement with farmers’ raw perception on irrigation water adequacy, and the fairness of irrigation management. Findings from this research would help advance our understanding in socio-hydrological feedback of complex irrigation structures, as well as underscoring key sociological constraints of irrigation development in emerging communities.