Abstract
Due to California State mandates to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to automobile use, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has become an important indicator of driving activity in a jurisdiction and subsequent GHGs generated by it. The regional organizations tasked with the implementation of public policy designed to reduce GHG emissions by automobiles are California’s Councils of Governments (COGs) and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). The purpose of this thesis is an examination of whether specific policy activities undertaken by these organizations have had any effect at reducing VMT. A few examples of these policy activities include transit-oriented development and Blueprint strategies that include limiting urban sprawl and managing regional growth. To accomplish this, I utilized both a quantitative regression analysis of data gathered quantitative data from multiple sources including the California Department of Transportation, United States (US) Census Bureau, Center for Health Statistics, and California Association of Councils of Government. For my dependent variable, I chose total VMT because it measures driving activity. My key explanatory variables are Single-County COG, Multi-County COG, and Blueprint. My results show that both of the COG variables have a negative impact on VMT totals, but the Blueprint variable has a positive effect on VMT. More specifically, the Multi-County COG has greater effects on VMT reduction than Single-County COGs. This suggests that regional cooperation is helpful in reducing VMT. Furthermore, I collected qualitative data by interviewing two representatives each from two different COGs. I asked them if they would consider a COG/MPO an effective organization to reduce VMT, to which they both agreed it is. I also asked if they thought the VMT mandated totals would be achieved by the proscribed due dates, and both thought it was not possible. The results provided in this study, unfortunately, are not conclusive in regards to the effectiveness of COG and MPO policies to reduce VMT. The purpose of including a Blueprint variable was to account for regional policies, and since that variable showed a positive correlation to VMT totals, I am not certain those policies are effective. However, I believe that my study is insightful and provides a starting point for tracking potential causes for changes in VMT.