Abstract
The City of Davis, California has a very high median housing value when compared to its surrounding area and the statewide average. High housing values can make the area increasingly unaffordable. A key policy question is whether Davis’ urban growth boundary adopted in 2000 has been a contributing factor to high housing prices. This thesis uses quantitative analysis from a range of California cities to assess the effect of Davis' urban growth boundary on median housing values. More specifically, this thesis draws on a panel data regression analysis using United States Census data from the 1990 Decennial Census, the 2000 Decennial Census, the 2010 Decennial Census and the 2010 American Communities Survey. A total of 56 California cities are studied. Supply side variables such as city land area, number of rooms, number of bedrooms and the age of the housing stock are considered in this analysis. Demand side variables include median household income, number of professional workers, number of people in poverty, number of high earning households, age, and percent of population married. The analysis determined that urban growth boundaries do contribute to increased median housing values over time. For each year the boundary is in effect, the median housing value is expected to increase by $5,811. Other factors also influence the median housing value. The City of Davis needs to consider the long-term impact of the urban growth boundary on its housing affordability during the debate on whether to allow new development.