Abstract
Development often causes gentrification. Some groups purposefully seek gentrification to improve the social and economic status of an area. Other groups oppose gentrification because of its social impacts on the community and existing residents. Modern-era streetcars demonstrate the double-edged sword of gentrification. Local governments across the U.S. are developing streetcars to promote economic development. However, development of a streetcar can increase the desirability of an area, which may displace long-time residents. This thesis addresses the question: Do modern-era streetcars cause gentrification? Using U.S. Census and American Community Survey data, this thesis employs logistic regression analysis to determine if streetcars cause gentrification. The data compares the cities of Little Rock, Tacoma, Tampa, Portland, Seattle, and Memphis because these cities have modern-era streetcars. The areas “treated” by proximity to a modern-era streetcar are the census tracts that intersect the streetcar line. The “control” is the city. This thesis uses different dependent variables in three separate models to assess the effects of gentrification: median household income, percent of college graduates, and median contract rent. This thesis found that a few years after operation of a streetcar begins there are signs of gentrification, as evidenced by a rise in median household income, proportion of college graduates, and median rent. I found that each year after a streetcar opens the indicators of gentrification increased. However, I cannot be certain that the streetcar caused the changes in the dependent variables or has a correlation with it. There could be an overall trend in development in the area and the streetcar was one of many large-scale developments at a given time. This thesis considers the impact of a capital project (i.e., streetcar) on gentrification because of the prominence of issues related to gentrification in public policy today. There are important lessons for local governments to consider to ease tensions over development. Local governments need to focus on growing a diverse housing stock and embracing the characteristics that make their jurisdiction distinctive. Local governments also needs to improve opportunities for higher density housing in the downtown area to prevent an increase in housing supply pressure because this pressure can lead to a rapid increase in rent. Finally, local governments need to insure an adequate affordable housing stock to prevent housing displacement.