Abstract
This research employs ordinary least squares regressions, ordered logit, and fixed effects regression models with a sample of National Football League (NFL) wide receivers from 2006 - 2019 to determine if factors that determine the position a player is drafted are the same as the factors that contribute to productivity in the NFL. The first set of models determine the characteristics that NFL teams view as signals of future productivity for college football wide receivers entering the NFL, and another set tests the efficiency of those signals by regressing NFL productivity measures on the factors that determine player draft position. Unique to this research is the use of Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades as a measure of productivity. Results indicate that NFL teams can accurately forecast the productivity of wide receivers, on average. However, many of factors relied upon by NFL teams to make draft decisions do not contribute to productivity in the NFL. Hence, NFL teams are relying on inefficient signals of productivity to make decisions during the Draft and may be able to improve drafting strategy by ceasing to rely on inefficient signals and focusing on the factors that accurately predict productivity.