Abstract
This thesis seeks to determine whether SB 375 will successfully change land use development patterns in California. Specifically, the Thesis focuses on the fiscal and political barriers to the successful implementation of this Bill. Further, this Thesis provides a case study of the potential for successful implementation of the Bill in the San Joaquin Valley. The Thesis focuses on the San Joaquin Valley because: 1) the area is projected to have the greatest population growth by 2050, and 2) the California Air Resources Board set a single placeholder target for greenhouse gas emissions reduction for each of the eight San Joaquin Valley Metropolitan Planning Organizations. This Thesis uses both qualitative and quantitative data to analyze the foregoing problem. The qualitative data was mainly obtained from prior academic studies and surveys in the relevant subject areas, including public policy, legal studies and finance. The quantitative data was mainly obtained from California government agencies (such as the California Employment Development Department, California Department of Finance, California State Controller’s Office and California State Board of Equalization), the United States Census Bureau, and data compilations from academic studies. This Thesis concludes that the present fiscal constraints on California’s counties will require an allocation of land use development to increase property taxes. As a result, counties will likely disregard SB 375’s goals to the extent that they conflict with the maximization of property tax revenues. Further, the political climate may require additional regulations to facilitate local governments’ compliance with SB 375, through the use of mandates, fines, penalties, etc. Indeed, the case study of the San Joaquin Valley indicates that the individual counties differ greatly based on population growth, development trends, the level of interregional travel, employment trends and existing land use patterns, and constituents’ views and opinions. Thus, it is unlikely that the eight San Joaquin Valley Metropolitan Planning Organizations will meet CARB’s targets. If California seeks to reduce GHG emissions, the most productive manner may be to establish statewide standards and offset the available reductions based on land use, projected population growth, approved land development, statewide transportation, and natural resource allocation for future development. Although a statewide program will face significant political opposition, it would be the most effective method to facilitate collaboration and coordination among the various counties. Air is fluid; it travels unobstructed and uninhibited from one region to another. This interconnectedness requires a broader and facilitated process to reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively.