Abstract
Potential climate change impacts on water resources on the Sacramento River Basin (Basin) and their economic impacts on agriculture were evaluated in this study. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software was used to develop a simulation model for the Basin. WEAP is a computer software used for integrated water resources planning that operates on the principles of water balance accounts. The model was applied to evaluate hydrologic implications of climate change scenarios by projecting future precipitation in the Basin for the period of 2016 to 2058 and estimate potential financial impacts on agriculture. Results indicates that extreme events such as extended drought conditions due to climate change can occur in the future. Model simulations revealed that the only county that could face an increase in financial losses in extreme events due to climate change within the Basin is El Dorado County. Financial losses due to crop yield reduction as a result of extreme drought are estimated at $37.5M. Approximately $4.5M more when compared to possible expected losses of $33M for five years of moderate drought following historical hydrologic patterns. Finally, model results show incremental and steady groundwater depletion in the Basin. Groundwater storage in the Basin could decrease from 66 MAF to 60 MAF. This indicates that extreme events such as extended drought conditions could add additional stresses on groundwater situation, and as a result have adverse effects on agriculture in the Basin.