Abstract
California has had a constitutional budget deadline of June 15 since 1933, a deadline the Legislature has not met in passing a budget in the past quarter century. Late budgets or a lack of a budget wreaks havoc on the state's most vulnerable population's survival, put in jeopardy the sustainability of small business state contractors, and cripple the state's ability to provide for the education, healthcare, and transportation needs of California residents. Media reports point to anecdotal evidence for what factors cause the Legislature's perpetual tardiness, some are supported by empirical academic research, and others are purely supposition.
This study examines the institutional factors that influence the California Legislature's ability to pass an on time budget. With data from the Secretary of State, Department of Finance, Legislative Analyst's Office, and Chief Clerk of the Assembly I use regression analysis to determine that, of the eight explanatory variables tested (Change in Revenue, Strength of the Majority, Years Late, Post Term Limits, Legislative Drawn Districts, Proposition 13, Proposition 98, and the Party of the Governor), there appears to be a positive relationship between Term Limits and the number of Days Late the legislature is in passing a budget. This conclusion makes sense based on what the field of research has said about the effect of term limits on other elements of policy making such as the level of state spending and the amount of oversight exercised by term limited legislatures.