Abstract
The purpose of this study has been to identify how financial aid and other factors influence college graduation rates, and to make recommendations on policies that could be used to increase graduation rates at public colleges in California. I obtained data on all four-year public degree-granting colleges in the United States and used regression analysis to identify the factors that impact college graduation rates and measure the magnitude of the impact to determine which factors in my data set are the largest contributors to graduation rates. My regression analysis included financial aid factors (the percentage of students at a college receiving different forms of aid, average amounts received, and the percentage of financial aid dollars distributed to different income groups), college factors (selectivity, tuition and fees, total enrollment, remedial services, etc), student factors (percentage of students at the college in different age, race/ethnicity, and gender groups); and social factors, which are characteristics of the state in which the student resides (percentage in different age and race ethnicity categories, the percentage of individuals who own their home, percentage single parents, etc). While my initial intent was to focus primarily on financial aid factors, I found these variables to have a smaller impact on graduation rates than many of the other explanatory variables included in my model. After identifying the impact that these factors have on college graduation rates, I used my regression model to identify colleges that are doing much better than predicted (and those doing worse) at graduating students in six years, all factors held constant. I studied the top and bottom performing schools in the UC and CSU systems and identified things that the top colleges are doing to increase graduation rates that were not controlled for in my regression model. As I was studying the colleges, I looked at various types of support provided to students including financial support (financial aid) and also social and academic support services. I also looked at the mission and culture of the colleges doing well compared to those doing poorly. My study did not lead to specific recommendations on additional policy changes that should be made to California’s state financial aid programs and services to increase graduation rates. However, I found some differences in the information and resources provided to students regarding financial aid between the best and worst performing colleges. In my concluding chapter, I make recommendations on things that California’s public colleges could do to increase graduation rates, both related and unrelated to financial aid. I also provide some general policy recommendations for the state that could be implemented to increase the percentage of students at public colleges in California that earn a bachelor’s degree in six years.