Abstract
The California Legislature has set ambitious goals to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). One way the state intends to reduce GHG emissions associated with transportation is to accelerate the transition to “clean vehicles” that require less, if any, fossil fuels to operate, and therefore produce fewer GHG emissions. Despite the presence of state programs that incentivize the purchase of these vehicles, sales lag behind state goals. My research combines a regression analysis and interviews with clean vehicle policy experts to identify the factors that may affect the sales of clean vehicles in California. Using data from the California Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, the Energy Information Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, my regression analysis examines the effect of the following variables on weekly clean vehicle sales from 2010 to 2016: gasoline prices, the unemployment rate, and the number of clean vehicles that qualify for a state rebate. Building on the results of the regression analysis, my interviews with experts explore the areas where California’s efforts to promote clean vehicles have succeeded and where the efforts have not met expectations. My regression analysis determined that an increase in gasoline prices of 1 percent over half a year causes a 1.6 percent increase in clean vehicles sales and that each 1 percent drop in unemployment rate increases the sales by about 104.5 percent. My regression analysis did not find that an increase in the number of vehicles that qualify for a clean vehicle rebate increases sales. My interviews with experts revealed that the two factors they believed to be increasing sales were the superior performance and handling of clean vehicles and California’s policy of allowing access to carpool lanes for individual drivers in clean vehicles. Each expert identified the lack of consumer awareness and knowledge of clean vehicles as a major barrier to increasing clean vehicle sales. Based on my findings, I recommend increasing state support for programs that would improve consumers’ familiarity and knowledge of clean vehicles, increasing the privileges offered to consumers who purchase clean vehicles, and changing the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program to expand access to clean vehicles for low-income consumers.