Abstract
This thesis examines the prospect of democratization in China by 2025 using Modernization Theory, comparing China to South Korea and Taiwan during their years of democratization . The thesis finds that China will be at least as developed by 2025 as South Korea was in its year of democratization (1988), and concludes that China will be in a position to support liberal democracy as early as 2022 to 2023. However, the author concludes that the democracy that will come to China by 2025 will not be "polyarchal" democracy as defined by Robert Dahl. Rather, the author concludes that the form of democracy that China first adopts will be intraparty (within the Chinese Communist Party), and might resemble polyarchal democracy at some time in the more distant future. He points to current efforts at proto-democratization by the Chinese Communist Party to support the conclusion that China's first serious experiment with democracy will be from within the CCP.