Abstract
At California community colleges, books can cost more than tuition. At less than $80 a class, California charges the lowest community college tuition in the country, a testament to the state’s commitment to providing its residents with an affordable college education. While the low tuition may help get students into the classroom, the tuition policy may not be helping students stay in the classroom. Studies have shown that California community college students are dropping one of every five courses midway through the semester. Policy analysts have suggested that higher tuition might motivate students to choose their courses more carefully and to stick out tougher courses. This study examines how price and other factors contribute to a community college’s course-completion rate. Using data obtained from the California Community College Chancellor’s Office, course completion is modeled using regression analysis with broad casual inputs (price, student demographics, school characteristics, and economic conditions). The statistical analysis is used to isolate how tuition changes in California community colleges from 2002-2008 can influence course-completion rates. The analysis confirmed a statistically significant, positive relationship between tuition and course completion. Though the predictive effect is small – and is likely moderated by the high percentage of students not paying any tuition due to fee waivers – small changes can carry long-term impacts on a community college system on the scale of California. With students enrolled in 4 million courses, a 38 percent tuition hike approved by the state Legislature in 2011 could lead to students completing up to 10,000 more classes statewide and staying on track to transfer to a university, earn a degree, or complete other goals. Larger tuition increases that have been proposed would motivate students to complete even more courses. An even larger potential impact on course completion could occur if proposed changes to the state’s fee waiver policy are made, such as requiring waiver recipients to make satisfactory academic progress or reducing the number of students not paying any tuition by replacing the fee waiver with a traditional need-based financial aid model.